Senate candidates are facing some tough and close races this election cycle, especially in seats on the Senate Committee on Banking Housing and Urban Affairs. Editor’s note: This article is part of a series leading up to the November election. This article is available for members only.
9/28/2020 9:00
By Patrick Russell
Federal Advocacy Director
Republicans in the U.S. Senate are playing defense to maintain the majority during the 2020 election cycle. There are 35 seats up for reelection in 2020, including special elections in Arizona and Georgia, and 23 seats held by the GOP.
Here is a brief update on a few of those races:
U.S. Sen. Martha McSally, R-Ariz.
In 2018, McSally was appointed to her current seat following the death of John McCain.
Now running for the seat a year later, McSally will face a general election showdown against Democrat Mark Kelly, a retired NASA astronaut and captain in the U.S. Navy and husband to former Arizona U.S. Rep. Gabby Giffords. McSally served in the U.S. Air Force from 1988 to 2010 and represented Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District from 2015 to 2019.
The contest between two retired combat veterans presenting different visions for the nation is key in determining the control of the U.S. Senate, which Republicans currently hold by a narrow margin.
As eyes turn toward November, both parties are mounting expensive campaigns. Polls that had consistently shown Kelly ahead of McSally by anywhere between five and 12 points seem to be tightening since President Donald Trump nominated Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court.
U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C.
Voters in North Carolina received their absentee ballots in the mail earlier this month. This will be an important factor in this election and U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., is embroiled in a tight race.
In what is shaping up as the most expensive Senate race on the map this November—there’s already been $80 million spent on TV advertisements—Democratic nominee Cal Cunningham has more than doubled Tillis’ fundraising this year and has consistently led in polling since late spring.
Trump has been weighing in heavily on Tillis’ behalf, which helped close a significant gap in polling. The race between Tillis and Cunningham is expected to be a very close right up until Election Day.
U.S. Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D.
In a year where so much is at stake for Senate Republicans, particularly those on the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, U.S. Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., might not face as much difficulty on the road to reelection. After winning in 2014 by a margin of more than 20 percentage points, Rounds is fairly secure in his reelection efforts. He will face off against former South Dakota State Rep. Dan Ahlers in November, but political prognosticators have shifted his race to “safely Republican” and he is expected to be back in Washington for a second term as the junior senator from South Dakota.
U.S. Sen. David Perdue, R-Ga.
Georgia has not elected a Democrat senator in 20 years, but 2020 is one of the tightest races the states has seen in decades. The retirement of U.S. Sen. Johnny Isakson has forced a special election at the same time as a regularly scheduled race, and Democrats see Georgia as an opportunity. The Senate majority political action committee (PAC)—a Democrat super PAC—is spending $7.2 million on TV ads for Perdue’s challenger, Jon Ossoff, in September.
Perdue, the former CEO of Reebok and Dollar General, won his first Senate race in 2014 and has become one of Trump’s strongest allies in Congress.
Ossoff, the CEO of a documentary production company, lost his first campaign in 2017 after the most expensive U.S. House race in history. But in June, he won the Democratic primary with more than 50% of the vote.
Statewide races over the past few election cycles indicate that Democrats are closing the gap in Georgia. In 2014, Perdue won his first Senate race by about eight points over Democrat Michelle Nunn. In 2016, Trump beat Hillary Clinton by five points. Two years later, in 2018, Republican Brian Kemp defeated Democrat Stacey Abrams in the race for governor by about a point and a half.
There are two seats in Georgia that Republicans are working to defend to maintain the Senate majority.
U.S. Sen. Doug Jones, D-Ala.
U.S. Sen. Doug Jones’ race is another must-watch. Jones secured a win in a 2017 special election to replace Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions after he left the seat to become U.S. attorney general. As a Democrat from deeply red Alabama, Jones faces a tough battle Nov. 3 against former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville. This is a seat Democrats are working to defend take control of the chamber.
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Next in the series: A look at campaign and election spending. Subscribe to ACA Daily to stay in the know on industry news and receive the Tuesday Advocacy Voice edition.