Democrats in the House saw historic gains in 2018. Republicans are vying to reclaim some seats in November. Here is a look at a few of those races. Editor’s note: This article is the first in a series leading up to the November election. This article is available for members only.
9/21/2020 15:00
By Patrick Russell
The Nov. 3 election is less than two months away, and ACA International is tracking several key races and trends indicating where majority control will land in the U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives and the White House.
The question is: will Democrats turn their 2018 blue wave into a 2020 blue tsunami? Or will Republicans maintain the majority in the Senate and the White House?
As it stands, Democrats hold 232 seats to the Republicans’ 198. In order to take back the majority, House Republicans need to hold onto three of the four vacant seats and win back 17 of the seats they lost in 2018.
While all 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be up for grabs in November, Republicans are now defending more seats than initially anticipated.
Democrats in the House saw historic gains in 2018 by picking up more than 40 seats across the country and flipping suburban districts that Republicans had come to see as reliable wins. It is unlikely that Republicans are going to be able to reclaim most of those lost seats, but there are a few that might present an opportunity, including:
U.S. Rep. Kendra Horn, D-Okla.
Oklahoma’s 5th Congressional District is one of the most traditionally Republican districts currently held by a Democrat. Mitt Romney carried the district by 18 points in 2012, President Donald Trump carried it by more than 13 points in 2012 and Horn won the seat from U.S. Rep. Steve Russell, R-Okla., by just over a point.
Come November, Horn will face off against Oklahoma State Sen. Stephanie Bice, R-Oklahoma City, who only just recently secured the Republican nomination thanks to a protracted run-off.
U.S. Rep. Max Rose, D-N.Y.
New York’s 11th Congressional District, home to Staten Island, was a traditionally conservative enclave until Rose flipped the district in 2018. A former Army Ranger and current commander in the New York Army National Guard, Rose has an independent streak and has spoken out against his party on occasion.
He will be facing off against New York State Assembly Member and former New York City mayoral candidate Nicole Malliotakis, R-Brooklyn, Staten Island, in a district that Trump carried by nearly 10 points.
U.S. Rep. Joe Cunningham, D-S.C.
South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District runs along the state’s eastern coastline and includes Charleston, S.C. It is one of the 30 districts that Trump won in 2016 that is now represented by a Democrat. Cunningham has made a splash in his first term—voting against Nancy Pelosi for the Speaker of the House, using an air horn in a committee hearing and bringing a case of beer onto the House floor.
Cunningham will face State Rep. Nancy Mace on the ballot in November. Mace is the first female graduate of the Citadel, a two-term state representative for Charleston and Berkeley counties, and won the GOP nomination to challenge Cunningham in the June primaries.
U.S. Rep. Elaine Luria, D-Va.
2020 will be a rematch between U.S. Rep. Elaine Luria and former U.S. Rep. Scott Taylor.
Luria, a former Navy Commander, sits on the House Armed Services and Veterans Affairs committees. These are two important committees for a district that covers parts of military-concentrated Norfolk, Newport News and Hampton.
Taylor, a Navy SEAL, veteran of Operation Iraqi Freedom and a former Virginia state delegate, spent his time in Congress on the powerful House Appropriations Committee focusing on military funding and veterans’ affairs reform.
While it is one of Virginia’s most competitive seats this cycle, Trump only carried the district by three points in 2016 and Luria has outraised Taylor by a factor of four.
U.S. Rep. Xochitl Torres Small, D-New Mexico
When former GOP Rep. Steve Pearce retired to run for governor in 2018, Torres Small beat out Yvette Herrell by less than two percentage points for his seat, even though Pearce won the district by six points in his failed gubernatorial bid.
Herrell, a former New Mexico state representative, survived a bitter Republican primary fight this year marked by substantial outside Democrat spending. The race set up another rematch for 2020.
Torres Small spent her first term serving on the Homeland Security and Agriculture committees and amassing a war chest nearly five times the size of Herrell’s.
The district has historically held a Republican majority and Trump came out ahead by 10 percentage points over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
It appears that Torres Small is one of the most vulnerable new Democrats seeking another term this year.
U.S. Rep. Jared Golden, D-Maine
Maine’s second district swung from voting for President Barack Obama by nine points to voting for Trump by 10 points. Thanks in part to the state’s new ranked-choice voting system, Golden was able to unseat U.S. Rep. Bruce Poliquin, R-Maine, in 2018.
Golden will be taking on Republican Dale Crafts. Crafts is a former state representative and a small-business owner.
Because of its tendency to swing between parties, its rural composition and its ability to allocate one electoral college vote, all eyes will be on Maine’s second district come November.
Next in the series: A look at campaign and election spending. Subscribe to ACA Daily to stay in the know on industry news and receive the Tuesday Advocacy Voice edition.
Patrick Russell is ACA International's federal advocacy director.