The Senate now awaits runoff election results to determine where the majority will lie.
11/8/2020 17:00
When the initial Election Day results came in on Nov. 3, Democrats retained their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, but now the majority in the U.S. Senate hinges on runoff elections in Georgia between U.S. Sen. David Perdue, R-Ga., and Democrat Jon Ossoff and U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler, R-Ga., and Democrat Raphael Warnock on Jan. 5.
ACA International is prepared for all outcomes as we continue to await the final election results.
Perdue and Ossoff remained in a tight race Friday, Roll Call reports. At press time, Perdue held 49.8% of the vote over Ossoff’s 47.8%. Candidates in Georgia must secure at least 50% of the vote to win.
Warnock leads Loeffler after the special election in Georgia 32.9% to 25.9%.
Here are a few other key Senate elections tracked by ACA:
- U.S. Sen. Cory Gardner, R-Colo., who serves on the Senate Commerce Committee, lost to John Hickenlooper.
- U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Ala., is leading an uncalled battle against Al Gross.
- U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., who serves on the Senate, Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, is also leading his uncalled district against Cal Cunningham.
U.S. House of Representatives
Based on where the congressional elections stand now, the best-case scenario for House Republicans is 221 Democrats to 214 Republicans; and a worse-case scenario is 230 Democrats to 205 Republicans.
At press time, Republicans held the lead in several close elections in the House:
- In Arizona’s 6th congressional district, with 94% of precincts reporting, U.S. Rep. David Schweikert, R-Ariz., defeated Democrat Hiral Tipirneni.
- In Iowa’s second district, with 100% of the votes reported, Democrat Rita Hart has a slight lead over Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks. The seat is open due to the retirement of U.S. Rep. David Loebsack. There was an error in the vote count and a recount started Saturday morning.
- U.S. Rep. Lauren Underwood, D-Ill., is close behind Republican challenger Jim Oberweis (49.9% to 50.1%, respectively) and the results could change once final results from mail-in ballots are counted.
- In New Jersey, U.S. Rep. Jeff Van Drew, a Republican who switched parties in 2019, was declared the winner over Democrat challenger Amy Kennedy, according to The New York Times.
- Since last Wednesday, results in the race between U.S. Rep. Ben McAdams, D-Utah, the former mayor of Salt Lake City and the only Democrat representing Utah in Congress and on the House Financial Services Committee, flipped with Republican and former NFL player Burgess Owens taking a narrow lead with 84% of precincts reporting. McAdams defeated two-term U.S. Rep. Mia Love by less than 700 votes in 2018 and was considered one of the most vulnerable members of Congress running for reelection this year.
On the House Financial Services Committee, U.S. Reps. Ann Wagner, R-Mo., and French Hill, R-Ark., won in their districts and U.S. Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., ranking member of the House Financial Services Committee was also reelected. Chairwoman U.S. Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., was reelected. If Republicans keep their majority in the Senate, U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., could move into the role of chairman for his last two years in Congress. Toomey has announced his retirement and that he will not run for reelection in 2022, ACA previously reported.
U.S. Rep. Kendra Horn, D-Okla., conceded in the state’s 5th congressional district, which is one of the most traditionally Republican districts currently held by a Democrat. Come January, Oklahoma State Sen. Stephanie Bice, R-Oklahoma City, will take Horn’s seat.
In an uncalled election, U.S. Rep. Max Rose, D-N.Y., is at press time trailing New York State Assembly Member and former New York City mayoral candidate Nicole Malliotakis, R-Brooklyn, Staten Island, in a district that Trump previously carried by nearly 10 points. Like New Jersey, mailed ballots postmarked by Election Day have until Nov. 10 arrive.
In New Mexico, Republican Yvette Herrell flipped the state’s 2nd congressional district in a victory over U.S. Rep. Xochitl Torres Small, D-New Mexico. Herrell, a former New Mexico state representative, survived a bitter Republican primary fight this year marked by substantial outside Democrat spending.
Two districts in Florida also flipped to the GOP.
Republican Carlos Gimenez, currently the mayor of Miami-Dade County, defeated incumbent U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in the 26th congressional district and Maria Elvira Salazar won over Democrat incumbent U.S. Rep. Donna Shalala in the 27th district.
ACA is continuing to review election results to provide updates for members and continues to prepare for every outcome. We’ve been laying the groundwork for engagement and education with incumbents who might find themselves moving committees as well as candidates who might find themselves as members of Congress in January.
Members can read coverage of ACA’s Virtual Fall Forum & Expo main stage session on the election here and learn more in our election outlook memorandum for the year ahead.